There have been a lot of ups and downs as it pertains to international tariffs, particularly with China. And while the heated rhetoric and sky-high tariffs seem to have settled down recently, it is worth keeping an eye on. Tariffs, of course are primarily an economic and trade policy tool, but they could have indirect impact on employment-based immigration to the United States.
Current Status: Minimal Immediate Impact—but some Indicators to Watch
To date, there has been little direct evidence that tariffs have materially impacted employment-based immigration programs such as the H-1B visa. However, there are early signs of shifting employer behavior. Notably, FY2026 saw a nearly 27% decrease in H-1B registrations compared to the previous year. While this decline may be influenced by factors like tech companies reducing hiring and being more budget conscious right now, as well as the fee increase for H-1B registrations from $10 to $215, future trade policy may further shift the landscape.
Potential Implications of Tariff Policy on Employment-Based Immigration
Here are several scenarios under which tariff activity could influence employment-based immigration:
- Economic Retaliation and Global Workforce Strategy Shifts
Countries targeted by tariffs may respond with retaliatory measures, potentially affecting the operations of U.S.-based multinational companies abroad. In turn, this could lead to reduced foreign investment in the U.S., decreasing demand for skilled foreign workers. It could also lead to shifts in talent acquisition strategies, with companies choosing to grow operations overseas instead of navigating uncertainty in U.S. trade and immigration policy.
- Domestic Labor Cost Increases May Drive Employer Hesitancy
Tariffs often raise the cost of imported goods and materials, leading to inflationary pressure. U.S. employers facing higher input costs may scale back hiring—including of foreign workers—especially in tech, manufacturing, and R&D sectors.
- Policy Convergence: Trade + Immigration Restrictions
In a second Trump administration, it is possible that trade protectionism could be paired with tighter immigration controls. While trade policy and immigration are administered by separate agencies, coordinated policy shifts could chill employer confidence in foreign hiring.
The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), formerly named the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is scheduled for a joint review in July 2026. This review will determine, in part, whether the three countries wish to continue the agreement for another term or whether the current agreement should be renegotiated. If they don’t agree to continue or if negotiations fail, the USMCA will expire in 2036 and people would no longer be able to apply for new TN status after that, although those with valid TN status would be able to remain and work until the expiration of their I-94.
Bottom Line: Remain Vigilant, but Avoid Overreaction
While the current impact of tariffs on employment-based immigration remains limited, evolving trade policy could change that picture. Employers should stay informed, assess global staffing strategies proactively, and be ready to adjust immigration plans in response to economic and political developments.
At Graham Adair, we are closely monitoring these developments and are available to discuss how your company can adapt to a shifting landscape in both trade and immigration policy.
For further updates and strategic advice, please contact your Graham Adair attorney directly, or you can reach out to us at info@grahamadair.com.
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This alert is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. For guidance on specific situations, please contact Graham Adair directly.